Population Projection

Statistical Bulletin: National 2022-based Population Projections, 2022 - 2042

Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency presents the latest national 2022-based population projections spanning from 2022 to 2042, offering insights into the anticipated demographic trends for Zimbabwe.

Population projections are vital for informed decision-making across various sectors. Policymakers, urban planners, and businesses rely on these estimates to prepare for the future. Projections guide healthcare resource allocation, educational planning, housing development, and workforce strategies. Demographers base projections on assumptions about fertility rates, mortality rates, and migration patterns. By understanding anticipated population trends, societies can address evolving needs and promote sustainable development.

Overall Population Trends

Across the principal high, and low projections, a consistent trajectory of population growth is projected. The principal projection, representing the central estimate, projects the population to reach 21,2 million by 2042, indicating a substantial increase from the 2022 population of 15,2 from the 2022 Population and Housing Census.

Population Growth

1. Absolute Growth: In the principal projection, the population is expected to increase by approximately 6 million persons over the 20 years.
2. Percentage Growth: In terms of percentage growth, the population is projected to expand by around 40% from 2022 to 2042, based on the principal projection. This is a significant population growth over the next two decades.

Variability Across Scenarios

While the principal projection provides a central estimate, it is essential to acknowledge the variability in projections. A full range of variant projections have been produced to provide users with evidence of uncertainty. Two in particular are depicted here, the high and low population size projections. The high projection assumes higher fertility, more mortality improvement, and lower net emigration than the principal projection, and the low variant is the opposite. The high projection suggests a potentially larger population of 22,8 million by 2042, while the low projection indicates a smaller population of 19,7 million by the same year. These alternative scenarios highlight the range of possibilities, underlining the uncertainties inherent in population projections.

Access to Population Data

ZIMSTAT provides access to comprehensive population data for research and analysis purposes via our data portal. Available for download, this dataset covers male, female, and total population figures segmented by single year of age from 2022 to 2042. The dataset encompasses 11 variants, offering detailed data on population projections. These variants include:

1. Principal projection
2. Constant rate projection
3. High Projections
3.1. High fertility projection
3.2. High life expectancy projection

3.3. High migration outflow projections

3.4. High population projection
4. Low Projections

4.1. Low Fertility projection
4.2. Low life expectancy projection

4.3. High migration outflow projections

4.3. Low population projection
5. Zero net migration projection

This range of projections variants enables users to explore different demographic scenarios and their potential implications. To access the dataset, please visit our official website's data portal.

Note: The figures provided are based on the latest available data and may be subject to revisions in subsequent releases.